Photo Credit: bird story agency
Morocco’s avocado surge is reshaping Africa’s export map, with North Africa overtaking East Africa in a trade long dominated by Kenya.
Bonface Orucho, bird story agency
Africa exported roughly 430,000 tonnes of avocados in 2025, but the balance of power moved north. Preliminary 2025 data show a decisive shift in volumes, logistics strategy, and market access, signalling how infrastructure and route stability now matter as much as farm output.
According to the 2025 edition of the FAO Tropical Fruits Market Review by the Food and Agriculture Organization, total African avocado exports rose 16.7% in 2025 to about 430,000 tonnes, underpinned by strong demand in Europe, the Middle East, and parts of Asia.
Morocco accounted for the largest share of that expansion. Its export volumes increased by around 90% year on year to approximately 141,000 tonnes in 2025, placing the country first on the continent for the first time, according to the FAO review.
Kenya, previously Africa’s top exporter, moved to second place after export volumes fell 19% to an estimated 105,164 tonnes in 2025. The FAO analysis links the contraction primarily to logistics constraints, including disruptions along key shipping corridors such as the Red Sea route, which reshaped global freight patterns in late 2024 and through 2025.
Security concerns near the Suez Canal led carriers to divert via the Cape of Good Hope, extending transit times to Europe and increasing freight costs. For Kenya, whose main export market remains the European Union, longer transit times directly affect fruit quality and shelf life, according to the FAO.
Morocco’s geographic position proved decisive.
Shipping times from Moroccan ports such as Tangier Med to southern Europe average a few days, compared to several weeks from East Africa when vessels reroute around southern Africa.
However, production growth also favoured Morocco. According to the FAO, Morocco’s avocado output has expanded steadily over the past five years, supported by irrigation investments and new orchards in regions such as Souss Massa and Gharb. Export packhouses have scaled in tandem, aligning grading standards with European supermarket specifications.
By contrast, Kenya’s domestic production trends diverged from export performance. While output declined in 2024 due to erratic weather patterns, industry sources projected a 4% production increase in 2025, driven by expanded planted area and higher yields per hectare. Counties such as Murang’a, Kiambu, and Nakuru continue to anchor Kenya’s Hass and Fuerte production.
Yet, regulatory measures also influenced trade flows.
In late 2025, Kenya’s Agriculture and Food Authority suspended avocado shipments by sea during parts of the season to safeguard export standards, limiting some consignments to air freight. According to a 2025 statement by the authority, the measure aimed to prevent immature fruit from reaching export markets after repeated quality concerns raised by European buyers.
Sector analysts argue that Africa’s avocado story is no longer defined by acreage alone.
“It is increasingly shaped by route reliability, cold chain efficiency, and compliance systems,” according to Wahiga Macharia of the Avocado Society of Kenya.
That emphasis on quality and consumer retention is echoed further south. At the 2025 Subtrop Marketing Symposium in Mpumalanga, Shelly Vorster of the World Avocado Organisation said European Union consumption surpassed one million tonnes for the first time, reaching 1.07 million tonnes in 2025. The EU now absorbs roughly 30% of global avocado volumes, according to WAO research.
Per capita consumption, however, remains uneven. In Nordic countries and Germany, annual intake averages around 2kg per person, compared to 1.8kg in the UK and 2.3kg in France, indicating headroom for further growth.
Vorster cautioned that demand growth hinges on consistent quality. A single poor eating experience can deter repeat purchases for up to 13 weeks, a risk that exporters with short marketing windows cannot afford.
South Africa’s industry illustrates this balance between access and execution. According to industry body Subtrop, South Africa exports around 40% of its 155,000 tonnes of annual production. While volumes remained broadly stable in 2025 despite port bottlenecks in Durban and Cape Town, exporters are increasingly targeting India, China, and the Middle East to diversify beyond Europe.
Government policy is also shifting to unlock new corridors.
South Africa’s agriculture ministry has indicated plans to deploy additional agricultural attachés to accelerate phytosanitary approvals in high-growth markets such as India, China, and Japan, underscoring how technical compliance increasingly shapes trade flows.
India, in particular, is emerging as a demand engine.
Import volumes there have more than doubled year on year for two consecutive years, rising from 1,871 tonnes in 2022 to 3,900 tonnes in 2023, 9,212 tonnes in 2024, and 19,120 tonnes in 2025, according to trade data cited by Indian importers. Growth is expected to moderate to 15–20% in 2026 as consumption stabilises.
Within that expansion, Tanzania has consolidated its position.
According to Indian importers at Abacate International, Tanzania remains the dominant origin for the Indian market due to zero-duty access and favourable transit times. Weekly consumption in India averages 14–15 containers, yet imports can reach 25–30 containers during peak arrivals, creating price volatility when supply overshoots absorption capacity.
Tanzania’s earlier 2025 season start, with shipments beginning in January instead of February, helped stabilise supply early in the year. Even so, election-related disruptions and flooding temporarily opened space for Kenyan and Australian fruit to gain short-term market share. Structurally, however, Tanzania remains India’s preferred source.
North Africa’s broader horticulture push reinforces Morocco’s lead.
According to 2025 trade data from Eurostat, Morocco strengthened its position in the EU fresh produce market across tomatoes, citrus, and avocados, leveraging proximity to Spain and France as well as established citrus export corridors.
Egypt is also positioning for scale.
Producer-exporter Pico, one of Egypt’s early commercial avocado investors, plans to double its planted area over the next four years. The company began trials in the late 1990s and commercial plantings around 2010, focusing 65% of its acreage on Hass for Europe, with green-skin varieties targeting North Africa and Gulf markets.
Egypt’s export window, running from mid-November through February, avoids peak competition from major Latin American suppliers. Executives say that seasonal advantage, combined with consistent sizing comparable to Spain and Morocco, underpins its strategy.
While Peru and Mexico still dominate global supply, Africa’s collective weight is increasing.
The FAO estimates global avocado shipments rose about 13% in 2025, reflecting sustained demand in Europe, the United States, the Middle East, and parts of Asia. Within that expansion, Africa’s share is rising as production scales and logistics recalibrate.
New Gulf demand is also reshaping routing decisions.
According to 2026 trade briefings from importers in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, consumption continues to expand, driven by food service growth and shifting diets. Morocco and Kenya both target these markets, though North Africa retains freight cost advantages.
China represents another strategic frontier. South Africa has secured phytosanitary access, while Kenyan authorities continue negotiations to expand protocols beyond pilot volumes. Compliance thresholds remain high, reinforcing the premium on coordinated value chains.
According to Macharia, farm-level expansion must align with trade architecture if Africa’s place in the global avocado economy is to be sustained.
“Ports, shipping lanes, compliance regimes, and diplomatic access increasingly determine who captures value,” he said.
Morocco leads for now, but the continent’s exporters are recalibrating.
“The contest is no longer about who plants the most trees. It is about who connects orchard to the shelf most efficiently, and in that race, infrastructure, market intelligence, and policy coordination may prove as valuable as fertile soil.”
bird story agency
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