Credit: bird story agency
As Cameroon awaits official election results, attention is shifting from the ballot box to the corridors of power. A new SBM Intelligence analysis suggests the country’s true contest lies in the succession race within the ruling elite, not in the vote count.
By Cheta Nwanze, with additional reporting by Bonface Orucho for bird story agency
Though preliminary data suggests a victory for the incumbent Paul Biya, the electoral commission (ELECAM) is still counting the votes following Cameroon’s October 12 presidential election, with the Constitutional Council expected to certify the results by October 26. This marks the eighth time President Paul Biya, now 92, has appeared on the ballot since first taking power in 1982.
Thirteen candidates were cleared to contest, including Biya’s main challenger, former communications minister-turned-opposition leader Issa Tchiroma Bakary, alongside Cabral Libii, Akere Muna, and Hermine Patricia Ndam Njoya, one of the few women in the race.
Reports suggest voter turnout was low, especially in the Anglophone regions where separatist groups called for a boycott. While some demonstrations occurred, ELECAM characterised the overall process as largely peaceful.
Tchiroma, backed by a coalition called the Union for Change 2025, declared victory just two days after polls closed, vowing to release his own tally of results and calling on Biya to concede. His self-declaration, however, was swiftly condemned by the ruling party and the government as unconstitutional and destabilising.
According to political observers, the election is unlikely to shift Cameroon’s entrenched power structure.
A new report by SBM Intelligence, ‘Cameroon, Political Future: Election Context and Internal Power Struggle’, argues that the 2025 vote was not about competition but about continuity.
According to Cheta Nwanze, the founder of SBM Intelligence, the true power struggle lies not at the ballot box, but within the upper echelons of the ruling elite.
He argues as follows:
“In the wake of Cameroon’s presidential election, the official outcome appears a foregone conclusion. SBM Intelligence anticipates that President Paul Biya will be announced the winner, extending his four-decade tenure. However, our latest report, Cameroon’s Political Future: Election Context and Internal Power Struggle, argues that this public contest is a sideshow to the real, high-stakes battle now unfolding.
The critical ‘election’ is not the one just concluded at the ballot box, but the intense, behind-the-scenes succession struggle within the regime itself. As President Biya’s rule inevitably nears its end, the country’s future hinges on a fierce contest for control, pitting the institutional power of bureaucratic gatekeepers against the formidable soft power of the President’s inner circle.
Our report provides a detailed map of this precarious transition. It dissects the key factions, their prominent allies, and their strategies for the post-Biya era. Furthermore, we explore the significant geopolitical implications, as international powers like China reassess their positions to protect strategic investments. The report also highlights how this struggle is increasingly being waged in the digital realm, where state-sponsored surveillance and AI-driven disinformation campaigns are becoming key tools for controlling the narrative and suppressing dissent.
This report is essential reading for any stakeholder with interests not only in Cameroon, but in the West and Central Africa region, as what happens in Cameroon will have an effect in how the elite across the region pursue power games.”
SBM identifies two dominant factions shaping this succession fight. The first is the Biya Clan, anchored by First Lady Chantal Biya, whose influence is tied to access and patronage. The second is the Bureaucratic Axis, led by Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh, the powerful Secretary General at the Presidency, who controls much of the state’s administrative machinery. This internal contest, SBM warns, is the principal driver of Cameroon’s political landscape.
The ongoing power struggle has impeded efforts to resolve the Anglophone crisis and has diverted attention from the persistent threat of Boko Haram in the Far North. For many voters, the election offered no real change. Economic stagnation, corruption, and rising unemployment have eroded public trust, and civil society leaders urged participation more as a civic duty than a path to transformation. Religious leaders, meanwhile, called for calm to avoid violence.
SBM notes that Cameroon’s political institutions now serve more as mechanisms for internal power equilibrium than for democratic transition, a dynamic that may heighten the risk of instability once Biya exits the scene. Analysts warn that a disorganized transition could trigger a regional crisis, prompting migration to Nigeria, Gabon, and Equatorial Guinea, and straining stability across Central and West Africa. Foreign powers, particularly China, which has significant infrastructure investments in Cameroon, are watching closely.
Despite greater visibility, the Cameroonian opposition remains divided. Tchiroma’s premature declaration of victory, analysts say, illustrates the lack of institutional leverage or unity among challengers to effectively contest the outcome. As SBM concludes, the outcome of this election lies not in the numbers, but in networks.
bird story agency